VISITORS

Thursday, 22 December 2011

New equations in Asia

Containing China

New equations in Asia

by Harsh V Pant

Regional states are no longer willing to wait but are actively seeking new ways to manage China’s ascent in global hierarchy.


As the rise of China upends the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, new regional configurations are emerging thick and fast to tackle this challenge. The US, Japan and India held their first trilateral meeting earlier this week in Washington to discuss regional issues.

The US has a traditionally strong security relationship with Japan and has been instrumental in bringing India and Japan closer together in recent years. Though security of sea lanes of communication, coordination of humanitarian assistance and global terrorism were the focus of this meeting, the rise of China was the unspoken subtext and it will shape the trajectory of this arrangement in the near future.

As America’s economic constraints force it to go back to an ‘offshore balancing’ posture, it needs new arrangements in Asia if it wants to prevent China from dominating the regional strategic landscape.

The US will increasingly rely on its regional allies and regional arrangements to carry more of the security burden much as it did via its hub-and-spokes alliance system in Europe since the end of the Second World War. China, of course, remains very sensitive to this pro-active approach in Asia and has suggested that a ‘Cold War mentality’ is not the way forward but the regional states have their own plans.

The US has encouraged a greater role for India in East and Southeast Asia. Exhorting India to lead and look beyond its immediate neighbourhood, secretary of state Hillary Clinton, during her visit to India earlier this year asked India “not just to look east, but to engage east and act east as well.” India has responded with a renewed focus on its Look East Policy which has evolved from economic and trade linkages with various regional countries to a gradual strengthening of security ties.

India’s ties with Japan, in particular, have been gaining momentum with both New Delhi and Tokyo making an effort in recent years to put Indo-Japanese ties into high gear. India’s booming economy makes it an attractive trading partner for Japan as the latter tries to overcome its long years of economic stagnation.

Japan is also reassessing its role as a security-provider in the region and beyond, and of all its neighbours, India seems most willing to acknowledge Japan’s centrality in shaping the evolving Asian security architecture.

Both India and Japan are well aware of China’s not so subtle attempts at preventing their rise. It is most clearly reflected in China’s opposition to the expansion of the UN Security Council to include India and Japan as permanent members. China’s status as a permanent member of the Security Council and as a nuclear weapon state is something that it would be loathe to share with any other state in Asia.

Trilateral initiative
As the US, Japan and India refashion their ties, there are now growing calls for another trilateral initiative involving the US, Australia and India. There is a distinct convergence of interests among the US, India and Australia across of a whole range of issues including the security of global commons, maritime security and counter terrorism.

The traditional neglect of Australia-India bilateral ties is beginning to get rectified with the Labour government’s decision to overturn a decades-old ban on uranium sale to India, paving the way for Canberra to supply the yellowcake to a nation outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Canberra has reinvigorated its alliance with the US in recent weeks agreeing to station 2,500 marines in a US base in northern Australia and has reached out to Japan for enhanced defence cooperation. Australia and India are ramping up their defence ties with the two sides converging on the importance of freedom of navigation in international waters, an issue that has bedevilled China’s ties with key regional states in recent months.

The issue has already generated a lot of heat with the Australian foreign minister first suggesting that India “has really been quite positive” about a possible trilateral defense arrangement involving the US, Australia and India but then Canberra having to publicly contradict such an assertion. New Delhi too was quick to deny it. Clearly any diplomatic move targeted explicitly at China will come unstuck in Canberra and New Delhi. But there is a clear recognition in Australia and India that new institutional mechanisms are needed for a new strategic landscape in Asia-Pacific.

Though economic ties between Australia and China are robust with China being Australia’s largest trading partner since 2009, the security implications of a rising and an ever more assertive China are becoming palpable with each passing day.

When the idea of a ‘democratic quad’ was mooted a few years back, the fear of antagonising China had led Australia and India to reject it. It was Kevin Rudd who had pulled out of the Quadrilateral initiative after winning the 2007 elections as he decided to reach out to China.

Now that similar arrangements are in offing, China will have to come to terms with a new reality that its faster than expected rise is creating tension in the region. Regional states are no longer willing to wait but are actively seeking new ways and means to manage China’s rapid ascent in global hierarchy.

India will now have to think more creatively about its role in East Asia and will have to seek new alignments if it wants to preserve a favourable balance of power in the region. The time for a regional ‘concert of democracies’ has arrived and New Delhi should give it serious consideration.

source: Deccan Herald

Sunday, 18 December 2011

Agni-V shows India's ambitions, says CPC paper

Ananth Krishnan
source:Hindu  
In this Feb. 2010, file photo, V.K. Saraswat, Scientific Adviser to the Defence Minister and Avinash Chander, Programme Director, AGNI missile, pose with a model of the Agni missile during a press conference in New Delhi.
In this Feb. 2010, file photo, V.K. Saraswat, Scientific Adviser to the Defence Minister and Avinash Chander, Programme Director, AGNI missile, pose with a model of the Agni missile during a press conference in New Delhi.
A commentary in the Chinese Communist Party's official newspaper this weekend called on India to cooperate more with its neighbours “instead of being hostile to them,” suggesting that India's rising military expenditure reflected its growing regional “strategic ambitions.”
The article published on the People's Daily's website, whose author was identified as Zi Mo, pointed to the development of the 5,000 km-range Agni-V, expected to be unveiled in February 2012, as showing India's “intention of seeking regional balance of power.”
While Indian military officials had said India's weapons would not pose a threat to any country, the newspaper said claims from other officials and scientists suggested that the development of the missile was aimed at China, whose cities would fall within its range.
The paper pointed to India's rising military spending — which is, however, only a little more than one-third that of China's, according to estimates — as evidence of Indian strategic ambitions.

Indian goal

“It is the Indian goal to continue to strengthen the military and possess a military clout that matches its status as a major power,” the article said. “However, how many missiles is enough is a question for all governments in the missile era.”
India was beginning “to get close to America” following Washington's growing strategic focus on the Asia-Pacific, but “thinking this move will contain its imaginary enemy would be naive.”
“India should cooperate with the neighbouring countries instead of being hostile to them and should reduce its own ‘persecution mania' to play a role on the world stage in the future,” the article said.
“There is no real winner in wars and peace opportunities must not be wasted. This is the wise judgment.”

Monday, 12 December 2011

Cross border smuggling on rise in Indo-China border

Gaurav Bisht, Hindustan Times

Shimla, September 05, 2011

Trafficking of rare stuff - in high demand at the international market - is on the rise on India’s border with China in Himachal Pradesh. For second time in past 13 months police has detected cross border smuggling on “porous” border with China in remote Kinnaur district raising questions about security arrangements.


Police on Monday seized two trucks laden with costly pashmina wool that was smuggled from Chinese villages to Indian border. The estimated cost of the seized wool is pegged at around Rs 1.5 crore in the international market. The police seized these trucks near Kharo in Pooh subdivision that is 100 kilometers from Nako a village close to China border in the district.

Reliable sources have told Hindustan Times that consignment of pashmina wool had been brought from the border villages in China. The pashmina wool that weighs about five tonne had been brought on the pony backs from Churup village in China administered Tibetan Autonomous Region. The wool is harvested from Himalayan mountain goat. The goat is found in Kashmir, Tibet and Nepal primarily. As pashmina wool set the fashion world on fire in the 1990s, it has high price in the international market.

Sources said that cops have also found some quantity of shatoosh wool sheared from rare Tibetan antelope Chiru. Wildlife reports have put that 20,000 of the wild animals that live on China's Tibetan Plateau are killed each year or are either shot in herds by automatic weapons or caught in leg-hold traps-for their prized coats. The shahtoosh trade was banned globally in 1975 under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) following a fall in the number of the antelopes. The Indian government followed and banned the trade in 1991.

The local drivers of the impounded trucks have told police that the wool was being taken to police. Local cops are also questioning one Kamla Nand a local said to be having close connections with Chinese traders. Reliable information said that Nand was arrested few days back while smuggling rare scotch Whiskies to China villages. Nand is said to informer for the military sources.

If sources are to be believed police had seized two trucks laden with pashmina wool and about eight other have already made their way into the Delhi markets. “Right now we cannot say anything except that tow trucks laden with Pashmina wool had been seized,” said Superintendent of Police in Kinnaur Ashok Kumar.

In August 2010 police has seized 12 tonnes of red sanders wood that was enruote to China. Red sanders wood grows in the forest of Andhra Pradesh is in high demand in China. The red sanders wood contains thorium is used as coolant in the old fashioned nuclear reactors; it is also used in medicines and making musical instruments in China.

Investigations revealed that the truck drivers had been issued permits by Indo Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) officers. ITBP is responsible for managing the security along Indian border in two tribal districts Lahual and Spiti and Kinnaur. The police sleuths had detected involvement of ITBP officials in the incident. A commandant and cops had been suspended for their involvement.

The latest case of cross border smuggling had once again raised question about the security along the Indo-China border.
China to open its first military base abroad in Indian Ocean

Beijing, Dec 12 (PTI)

In a move that may cause unease in India, China today announced that it will set up its first military base abroad in the Indian Ocean island of Seychelles to ''seek supplies and recuperate'' facilities for its Navy.


The naval fleet may seek supplies or recuperate at appropriate harbours in Seychelles or other countries as needed during escort missions, Chinese Defence Ministry announced here today.

China has already cemented its foothold in the Indian Ocean by signing contract with the UN backed International Seabed Authority to gain rights to explore polymetallic sulphide ore deposit in Indian Ocean over the next 15 years.

The contract awarded this year to a Chinese association exclusive rights to explore a 10,000-square-km of international seabed in the southwest Indian Ocean.

The base in Seychelles is regarded significant by analysts as China is about to launch its first aircraft carrier. It is currently undergoing final trials.

Playing down its significance, Chinese Defence Ministry statement today said it is international practice for naval fleets to re-supply at the closest port of a nearby state during long-distance missions.

Apparently commenting on a recent report that China will establish a military base in Seychelles, it said Chinese naval fleets have re-supply facilities at harbours in Djibouti, Oman and Yemen since China sent its first convoy to the Gulf of Aden in 2008.

The decision to establish its first naval base abroad was taken during Chinese Defence Minister Gen Liang Guanglie's goodwill visit to Seychelles earlier this month.

During the visit, Seychelles Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Paul Adam said his country has invited China to set up a military base on the archipelago to beef up the fight against piracy.

"We have invited the Chinese government to set up a military presence on Mahe to fight the pirate attacks that the Seychelles face on a regular basis," Adam was quoted as saying in the media reports.

"For the time being China is studying this possibility because she has economic interests in the region and Beijing is also involved in the fight against piracy," he said.

During Liang's visit, the two sides exchanged views on their countries' and armies' cooperation, as well as on the global and regional situation, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

Seychelles appreciates China's efforts to maintain safe navigation on the Indian Ocean, as well as the support it has granted to Seychelles, the ministry said.

Seychelles also invited China's navy to re-supply and recuperate in the country during escort missions, the defence ministry statement said.

Thursday, 8 December 2011

Asia-pacific region - Changing landscape

Asia-pacific region

Changing landscape

by Harsh V Pant

India is emerging as a critical balancer in the Asia-Pacific, and regional states are recognising New Delhi’s growing clout.


The rapidly changing strategic landscape of the Asia-Pacific has, once again, been in focus in recent days. Even as Europe struggles to come to terms with its economic decline, major powers in the Asia-Pacific are coming to terms with their region’s rapidly rising economic and political profile. The US president, Barack Obama, was in Asia to underscore America’s commitment to the regional stability at a time when he is wrapping up two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

As the US secretary of state has already underlined, “the future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the US will be right at the centre of the action.” At a time when talk of American decline and retrenchment from global commitments has become de riguer, the signals coming from Washington are that it has no intention of leaving the Asian strategic landscape. Nor will regional states allow America to lower its profile. After all, the elephant in the room (region) is China’s faster than expected ascent in global inter-state hierarchy.

The East Asia Summit was the second gathering in a week that brought American and Chinese officials together for a regional meeting. It followed the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Hawaii a few days back where much to China’s annoyance, the US president suggested that Beijing needed to “play by the rules” in international trade.

From there, Obama moved to Canberra where he secured new basing rights even as eight regional states signed up for the Obama administration’s new Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free-trade plan. As the threat of a rising China increases, most regional states are eager for greater economic, political and military engagement with the US.

Australia made it clear how despite growing economic linkages with China, regional states continue to hedge their bets by courting American security partnerships. The US announced a permanent military presence in Australia and the move to send 250 Marines to bases there for six-month tours starting next summer, eventually rotating 2,500 troops through the country, is being widely viewed as the start of the administration’s strategic objective of repositioning the US as a leader on economics and security in the fast-developing Asia-Pacific region. Not surprisingly, Beijing was quick to react questioning whether expanding the military alliance ‘is in line with the common interest’ of countries in the region.

China also views the development of the TPP as a political move, to create a US-dominated counterweight to a rival trade bloc of Southeast Asian countries plus China, Japan and South Korea, known by the acronym Asean Plus Three. Meanwhile, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao demanded that ‘outside forces’ had no excuse to get involved in the complex maritime dispute, a veiled warning to the US and other countries to keep out of the sensitive issue.

Emerging role

It is in this broader context that India’s emerging role in the region should be assessed. India is emerging as a critical balancer in the Asia-Pacific and regional states are recognising New Delhi’s growing clout. This was reflected in Australia’s recent decision to reconsider its ban on the sale of uranium to India. That a Labour government, traditionally considered a non-proliferation hawk, should take this decision is reflective of the changing priorities of Canberra. And that this could not have happened without American pressure on the Australian government to change its policies should also alert New Delhi to the important role a so-called declining America continues to play in supporting Indian ambitions in the region and globally.

In his meetings with the Chinese premier and the US president, the Indian prime minister did raise a range of issues. Though Manmohan Singh ruled out any major changes in the nuclear liability law in the near future, despite American misgivings, he urged Obama to commence nuclear trade with India. The US was also informed that India was ready to ratify the Convention on Supplementary Compensation (CSC), another issue that the US wants to be done as part of implementation of the civil nuclear deal. This is an important issue to be clarified on an immediate basis given a wide-ranging perception that the US-India ties have entered a period of drift. The strategic priorities of New Delhi and Washington are in alignment but it’s the tactical issues that have made the two wary of each other.

With Wen Jiabao, Singh was refreshingly emphatic in suggesting that India wouldn’t take sides in China’s territorial disputes with its neighbours over South China Sea but India did have a right to exploit the sea's oil and gas commercially. Wen urged India and China to work ‘hand-in-hand’ to ensure that the 21st century belongs to Asia. There are, he said, enough areas where India and China can cooperate with each other. Yet this cannot hide the fact that frictions are increasing with each passing day between the two Asian giants.

China must understand that with its rise on the international stage comes increased responsibility argued Obama. If Beijing does not respect international rules, Obama said, “we will send a clear message to them that we think that they need to be on track in terms of accepting the rules and responsibilities that come with being a world power.” This reflects that American strategic priorities are changing and changing rapidly. Indian diplomacy will have to be equally agile to take advantage of all the opportunities that this new realignment of structural forces presents New Delhi in serving its own interests
source:Deccan Herald

Tuesday, 6 December 2011

2nd Chinese expo in a month in Mumbai

Mumbai, Dec. 6:

Less than a month after receiving an encouraging response, Chinese entrepreneurs will be back in Mumbai again to display their wares at the 9th China Products Exhibition 2011 to be held between December 15 and 17. A similar expo China Sourcing Fairs was held between November 23 and 25 in Mumbai.

The growing efforts being taken by Chinese companies to tap the Indian markets reflect slowdown of demand from its traditional markets in the US and Europe.

The China Products exhibition will provide a platform for Indian and Chinese entrepreneurs to interact with each other to explore long-term business associations in the form of tie-ups, joint ventures, collaborations and import-export trading relations.

Over 120 Chinese companies will display extensive range of products across a wide section of industries such as building, construction and interiors, diesel engine and diesel generator sets, electrical appliances, electronics, fabrics and garments, food and beverages, gifts and toys, hardware and tools, health and hygiene, home appliances and industrial products.

The trade show is being organised by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, sub-councils of Commercial Industry, Guangdong, Ningbo and Hangzhou and supported by the All India Association of Industries and the India-China Chamber of Commerce and Industries.

Mr Suresh Prabhu, former Union Cabinet Minister for Power, Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, who will preside over the expo, said there are a lot of opportunities for India and China to collaborate and develop positive relations based on trust and friendship for mutual benefit

Friday, 2 December 2011

Bilateral agreement: Protocol expected to defuse maritime tension

India-China pact for calm on seas

New Delhi, Dec 2, DHNS:

Aiming to avoid any conflict with China in the strategically vital Indian Ocean, India is considering a bilateral protocol that may help defuse any maritime tension between the two emerging economies in the region.


“Such a protocol is under the examination of government,” Navy Chief Admiral Nirmal Verma said, adding that the idea was being debated within the establishment following the success of Indo-Pakistan hotlines between the two countries’ director generals of military operations.

While New Delhi has a structured mechanism with Pakistan to deal with border issues and another border dispute redressal mechanism with China is on the cards, no such structures is in place between the two navies, both of which are expanding their footprint in the Indian Ocean through which bulk of the world’s oil and cargo moves.

Even though Beijing’s recent sovereignty claims on the South China sea has ruffled many feathers in the Asia-Pacific, Indian Ocean region could very well turn out to be a flashpoint zone between the two neighbours.

“A protocol (to avoid confrontation) is being looked at by the government,” Verma said, adding that such a protocol existed between USA and USSR at the height of the cold war. Earlier this year, INS Airavat sailing at South China Sea was threatened over the radio by a person identifying the area as Chinese territory and asking the Indian warship to back off.

In 2009, China claimed that its warships had forced an Indian submarine to surface after it was allegedly found tracking the movement of the Chinese ships in the Indian Ocean when these were on their way to join the anti-piracy operation in the Gulf of Aden.
While the first Chinese aircraft carrier has begun its sea trial a few months ago, more carriers are believed to be under construction.

China has invested heavily in the submarines and its game-changer, an anti-ship ballistic missile that can destroy an aircraft carrier from more than 1000 km away is “close to operationalisation” keeping the Indian Navy as well as US Pacific Command on the tenterhooks. “The anti-ship missile will generate a different category of weapon,” admitted Verma.

To position itself in an authoritative position vis-a-vis China, Indian Navy is not only increasing its assets and manpower but also extending support from other littoral states who may offer their crucial help when the need comes.

The first Indian nuclear submarine INS Arihant and new carrier INS Vikramaditya will be on the patrol before the end of 2012. The Navy is also going to add more destroyers, frigates, submarines and aircraft in its inventory within the next five years and there is no dearth of funding to strain the ongoing programmes in the next five years. By 2027, Navy was looking at a fleet strength of more than 150 ships and close to 500 aircraft, including fighters, choppers and surveillance platform, he said.