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Tuesday, 31 January 2012

China's rise: an assessment

by M. K. Bhadrakumar
source: The Hindu  
The Rise of China: Implications for India: Edited by Harsh V
The Rise of China: Implications for India: Edited by Harsh V
China's rise has been singularly dramatic. Its extraordinary economic growth has begun transforming the geopolitics of the Asia-Pacific region. China is embroiled in a host of problems at home. All the same, there is immense interest in seeing how the surge of Chinese power and influence is going to play out.
Interwoven with it is the angst that the United States' “unipolar moment” might be coming to an end. While the Europeans see the rising China as an economic opportunity, the Americans perceive it as an economic threat. As the balance of economic power in Asia is shifting in favour of China, the U.S. watches with nervousness. As China's GDP rises, the countries on its periphery get irresistibly drawn into its economic orbit, attracted by the hugeness of its market.
The Rise of China — Implications for India speaks of an imperative need to “counterbalance” China and advocates an alliance system under U.S. leadership to achieve it. The volume presents a collection of essays as part of a “project”, portraying that China is bent on preventing the rise of other regional powers — especially Japan and India — “in order to attain primacy” in the Asia-Pacific, “concentrating on the accretion of military might”, and “changing the military balance in Asia and beyond”.
Harsh Pant, editor of the volume, is convinced that, as China grapples with intractable internal problems, its “communist political regime” would be constrained to use nationalism as a tool to divert domestic public attention and tempted to rely on “targeting its external adversaries and India, in many ways, presents an easy target.”
Strained relations
The Sino-Indian relationship is already strained and an arms race is certain, and he would, therefore, argue that India's strategic interests would be served by an Asia-Pacific arrangement “where the U.S. retains its predominant status.” On its part, the U.S. happens to favour a strong bilateral alliance with India to “act as a bulwark against the arc of Islamic instability running from the Middle East to Asia and to create a much greater balance in Asia.” Yet, Pant doesn't let us into his secret as to how America's tryst with “Islamic instability” could be the leitmotif of a U.S.-India “alliance”.
The book imposes a fundamentalist viewpoint. It overlooks the geopolitics of the U.S.'s “return to Asia” and blithely assumes that Uncle Sam is all dressed up in military fatigue raring to fight the Chinese dragon. The essays in it, though, do not necessarily bear out Pant's thesis, and some of them present eclectic views that reject his opinions. There is a fine piece by Bibek Debroy comparing the reform programmes of China and India and explaining how China ended up “far ahead of India, including virtually in every economic sector.”
Again, Varaprasad Dolla gives an engrossing account of domestic politics in China, where the political logic of economic development is to derive legitimacy for state power; there has been a “steady retreat of the state in regulating society”; and the communist party itself has been going through a “process of transition and transformation.”
Border row
Two American contributors — David Scott and Elliot Sperling — have respectively handled with extraordinary candour the India-China border dispute and the Tibet problem. The border dispute is a can of worms and Scott argues that “some sort of trade off involving Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh seems the most likely way forward,” while Tawang remains “problematic.” But then, the crux of the matter is also that India has “refused to lay out its formal position, other than the reiteration of its full claims.”
The book, however, fails to ask some honest questions. How far are Asian countries interested in a Pax Americana? How threatening is the Sino-Pak military cooperation for India's security? What prompts China to develop a Silk Road through South Asian countries into the Indian Ocean? Surely, the military modernisation of China and India has a greater logic in our troubled world than just their mutual tensions.
Going up the greasy pole of the world order isn't going to be easy for China and India — the two world powers that accounted for 40 per cent of global trade in the mid-19th century but were thrown out of the pedestal. The fact is that the steady shift in the locus of global power to Asia threatens to end some five or six centuries of dominance by the western world. And the West isn't going to roll over. “Projects” like ‘The Rise of China: Implications for India' fudge the great game. That brings us to a puzzle: What is the “Project” really about? The best part is that the Indian establishment wasn't even remotely associated with it.
THE RISE OF CHINA — Implications for India: Edited by Harsh V. Pant; Cambridge University Press India Pvt. Ltd., Cambridge House, 4381/4, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi-110002. Rs. 795.

An action plan for Sri Lanka

An action plan for Sri Lanka

by A. P. J. Abdul Kalam
(former President of India)

The outline of a sustainable development system to empower villagers.

The process of evolution of human beings has been greatly accelerated by the application of science and technology in several fields. With the expansion of ideas, the geopolitical situation changed and many new independent nations were born in the era of the Second World War. Most of the nations had a great civilisational heritage, but suffered under colonial rule for centuries. After the end of colonial rule, independent nations formed governments of their own, often propelled by democratic aspirations. The process continues, and the 21st century is going to see an evolved world. We are all destined to realise happiness, dignity of life, freedom and creativity — but only if nations become noble.

How do we define a nation's nobility? It is not merely in terms of economic indicators, human development indicators, or any other form of numerical indicators. It is more of a qualitative than a quantitative measure. Naturally, a noble nation has to be populated by people who are noble — not just at the individual level but in a collective sense as well. And nobility has to begin from the top, from the leader, and percolate to various levels of society, down to the artisans and peasants.

Do we have a good example? Is there an ideal description of such nobility?

Opportunities & challenges

When India's first Prime Minister addressed the nation early in the morning on August 15, 1947, he chose the hope of a future in a multi-cultural democratic context and articulation on the issues of a developing country. The uncharted path ahead had vast opportunities but also grave challenges. Everybody in the political system, and many other citizens, had assembled. I heard the historic speech of freedom at midnight, on All India Radio at Rameswaram where many of us had crowded around a community radio. The next day, newspapers carried various photographs. One person was missing in the photos and the addresses. That was Mahatma Gandhi, the Father of the Nation. He was away in strife-torn Bengal among downtrodden people and was giving love and care to those brutalised by the human frenzy of hatred and intolerance. He was trying to find a solution to cure a menace that was poisoning society and people.

Mahatma Gandhi created the benchmark of a noble nation, a noble society and a noble leader, by his simple example of practical action. That scene is playing again and again in my mind. All leaders should capture this scene of a serving leader in their minds and actions.

To evolve a noble nation, let us answer five questions. Am I a noble individual? Is my society noble? Is my nation noble? If it is not, what should I do? How do I change the current situation and move towards nobility?

If we all ask these questions sincerely and answer them truthfully, we will find solutions leading to concrete action. Many noble nations will then emerge. Humanity will prosper. Civilisations will advance.

Benefits for all

Having addressed this subtle principle and ideal, let us focus on some practical aspects of life which provide ground for nobility to arise in society and people. These are the removal of poverty, hunger and pain from diseases. This will need a development agenda based on the core competence of the nation and its entire people.

When different societies come together to build a cohesive social system and a nation, it is necessary to ensure that the benefits of development encompass all sections of society. The world over, poverty, illiteracy, unemployment and deprivation are precipitating into strife, anger and violence. These link themselves to some earlier real or perceived historical enmities, tyrannies, injustices, inequities, ethnic issues and religious fundamentalism, flowing into an outburst of extremism. Both India and Sri Lanka have witnessed, and are witnessing, such acts. We have to address ourselves on the root causes of such phenomena to find lasting solutions to promote peace.

We also need to minimise damage from natural disasters and risks from manmade activity. These give basic human security to enable people not to hate others and not be jealous. For this transformation to take place, we have to replace the urge of “what can I take” with the spirit of “what can I give?”

Buddha said: “Nibbana [nirvana] cannot be had on empty stomach.” How can we translate this message into action?

One need of a noble nation is the creation of an environment of inclusive development where everyone gets an opportunity to build capacity and generate income based on competencies. For this, the evolution of sustainable systems which act as “enablers” and bring inclusive growth and integrated development is needed.

Let me present one such sustainable development system: the mission of Provision of Urban Amenities in Rural Areas (PURA) through the creation of three connectivities, namely, physical, electronic, knowledge leading to economic connectivity, for 15,000 villages of Sri Lanka.

PURA means that the villages must be connected within themselves and with main towns and metros by good roads, waterways and, wherever needed, by railway lines. They must have other infrastructure such as schools, colleges, hospitals and amenities for the local population and visitors. This is physical connectivity.

Secondly, in the emerging knowledge era, native knowledge has to be preserved and enhanced with the latest tools of technology, training and research. Villages should have access to good education from the best teachers, wherever they are. They must have the benefit of good medical treatment, and latest information on their pursuits such as agriculture, fishery, horticulture and food processing. That means they need to have electronic connectivity.

Thirdly, once physical and electronic connectivity are enabled, knowledge connectivity is enabled. That can facilitate the ability to increase productivity, utilisation of spare time, awareness of health welfare, ensuring markets for products, increasing quality consciousness, interacting with partners, getting the best equipment, increasing transparency. This, in general, will ensure knowledge connectivity.

The three connectivities

Once the three connectivities — physical, electronic and knowledge connectivity — are ensured, they facilitate earning capacity, leading to economic connectivity. When we Provide Urban Amenities to Rural Areas (PURA), we can uplift rural areas, attract investors, introduce useful systems such as rural BPOs, microfinance institutions and small-scale industries.

Already there are operational PURAs in India, initiated by various institutions. The Government of India is moving ahead with the implementation of PURA on a national scale.

With 16 million rural citizens, who represent about 79 per cent of its population, Sri Lanka has the potential to deploy about 160 PURA complexes based on the core competencies of village clusters. These may focus on three aspects.

Coastal, Plain & Hill PURA

One is Coastal PURA. This will focus on marine industry, including fishing, processing, packaging and sales. Sri Lanka's long coastline can be organised into about 50 coastal PURA complexes, primarily focussing on fishing and also the service industry of sea tourism. Another industry that can be promoted relates to gems and precious stones.

The second is Plain PURA. Based on the inland areas of Sri Lanka, we can realise about 60 Plain PURA complexes, focussing on agro-products and processing of rice and coconut, forest produce, natural and medicinal tourism, and the IT/ITES industry to generate employment for rural youth.

The third is Hill PURA. With large areas of central Sri Lanka being located on highlands, there is potential to create 50 Hill PURA complexes. Suitable weather conditions make them ideally suited for creating an industry based on tea. To consolidate the industry in these regions, the Hill PURAs can promote cooperatives of farmers, who can manage end-to-end production of tea to realise the value of farm produce better. Sri Lankan tea has high value in the export market, providing potential for high income growth to the local community.

There are more aspects that could go within each of the PURAs. The execution of such a mission can be done in an entrepreneurial way, with a Public-Private-Community Partnership model, with active involvement from diverse societies. I, along with my team of experts, would be happy to participate in the planning of pilot PURA complexes in Sri Lanka to empower rural citizens.

(The author is a former President of India. This has been excerpted from an address he delivered at the launch of the National Action Plan, and the declaration of 2012 as the year for a trilingual Sri Lanka, on January 21.)

Friday, 27 January 2012

India, China to drive boom in Asian economies: Singapore PM

Jan 28, 2012 at 12:21

India, China to drive boom in Asian economies: Singapore PM
Notwithstanding ups and downs, India and China will drive the boom in Asian economies in the coming years, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien-Loong has said.


Notwithstanding ups and downs, India and China will drive the boom in Asian economies in the coming years, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien-Loong has said.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting here, he also noted that escalation of the European debt crisis would cause serious problems. "But there is a lot of momentum in the Chinese and Indian economies and that should help us to keep moving forward," Lee said.

Top economists and business leaders attending the WEF have also expressed optimism over the growth potential of India and China, amid gloomy global economic conditions.

"Emerging markets are doing well, there is still growth in China and India...," economist Nouriel Roubini, famed for his predictions on 2008 financial crisis, had said earlier.

In recent years, economic power has been shifting from developed nations to emerging markets. Going by estimates, emerging economies account for almost half of the world's gross domestic product.

According to eminent persoanlities at the WEF meeting, this shift would have an enormous impact on global consumption and investment patterns. In its latest report, the International Monetary Fund has projected India and China to clock growth rates of 7% and 8.2%, respectively, this year.

However, the global economy is expected to expand 3.3%, with the US being anticipated to grow 1.8% in 2012 while Europe could possibly see another recession, according to the IMF.

Wednesday, 25 January 2012


HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY 2012

Monday, 23 January 2012

Sunday, 22 January 2012


BUILDING PEACE : THE BAHUDHA APPROACH

By His Excellency Shri. Balmiki Prasad Singh, Governor of Sikkim, delivered at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore on 10th January, 2012.
















Thank you Ambassador Kesavapany, for inviting me to visit the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies and to deliver the Lecture at the Nalanda Srivijaya Centre this evening. I deem it a privilege to speak at this prestigious Centre on a theme which in some ways goes on to expand the idea and the mission-statement of the Centre itself.



As is well known, Nalanda, the name of the ancient centre of higher learning in Bihar, a State to which I belong, is one of the first great universities in the recorded history. In its heyday, Nalanda was home to over ten thousand students and two thousand teachers and went on to build a high tradition of mutual learning drawing students and teachers from different parts of the world including Southeast Asian countries.



Srivijaya was a powerful ancient Malay empire on the island of Sumatra in Indonesia and contributed substantively to values of public life and nationalism, language and arts, urban planning and architecture and also in promoting linkages among great civilizations.



Both Nalanda, the seat of learning, and Srivijaya, the name of empire, have over the centuries, become adjectives as they have conveyed to succeeding generations of Asians and, continue to do so, if I may say so, to the people of the world the values of learning and mediation, dialogue and harmony, brotherhood and peace.



Both Nalanda Idea and Srivijaya Idea were inspired by Buddhism. The Rigvedic hymns, Sanskrit and Pali literatures, and the ways of living of our people in ancient times further helped shape the thought process. In this interplay of ideas, both Nalanda and Srivijaya have retained the local flavor while being universal in outlook. It needs to be mentioned that Buddha’s scrupulous empiricism, his demand for intellectual and personal independence, his belief in dialogue, his insistence on the ‘middle path’ are useful beacons in this behalf.



The year just gone by has been a year of people’s uprisings. The pent up frustrations of citizens in several countries found an immediate release in an incident of a Tunisian vendor setting himself ablaze in Sidi Bouzid, a town that could not be easily located on world atlas. The flames engulfed the authoritarian regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya and rattled the ones in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain. This spirit of dissent outpoured into the streets of Mexico, Greece and Russia as well. Many people view ‘occupy Wall Street’ in New York and other places and ‘anti-graft’ movement in India as similar expression of discontent in democratic orders.



Today the yearnings for humane and responsive governance based on dignity and respect are a universal demand. The real question is, as Vaclav Havel observed in his 1988 treatise, The Power of the Powerless, “whether the brighter future is really always so distant…what if…it has been here and only our blindness and weakness has prevented us from seeing it”.



I am one of those who believe that a bright future for all of us is within our reach. The need and the time are now for us to look inward, promote dialogue among concerned citizens, leaders and institutions. We have to move towards building institutions and supporting individuals that make for a truly compassionate political and social architecture as called for in the Bahudha approach. I have, therefore, ladies and gentlemen, decided to elucidate the Bahudha approach at some length this evening. Let me explain it in the context of our contemporary history and challenges at hand.



II



Setting and Argument



In a poem entitled ‘The Sunset of the Century’ written on the last day of the 19th century, the famous Indian poet Rabindranath Tagore wrote: ‘the last sun of the century sets amidst the blood-red clouds of the West and the whirlwind of hatred’. The mood on the last day of the 20th century, however, was one of hope. Many viewed the conclusion of the Cold War as the end of major conflicts in global politics and the emergence of a harmonious world. This expectation was short-lived.



In the morning of 11th September, 2001 as the aircraft flown by Al- Qaeda attacked USA’s World Trade Center at New York, Pentagon – its defence headquarters in Washington DC; and in the plains of Pennsylvania- a new era began. The attack lasted just 102 hours but but heralded an era that has forced a more realistic appreciation of the world.



It firmly established that religiously motivated violence will pose a major threat to world peace. It became a landmark not only in the lives of those who were physically affected and had barely survived but also of numerous others including myself. The response of individuals, however, varied.



Ten days later on September 21, 2001 President George W. Bush in his address to the American people declared America’s commitment ‘to the destruction and to the defeat of the global terror network’ and went on to assert : ‘every nation in every region now has a decision to make: either you are with us or you are with the terrorists’. Soon commenced the military attack on Afghanistan. The regime change in Afghanistan was followed by invasion of Iraq and more recently the entry of the US navy seal in Abottabad in Pakistan on 1st May, 2011 leading to capture and killing of Osama bin-Laden, the leader of Al-Qaeda.



Persons like the young musician P.J. Harvey reacted in a different manner. Polly composed some memorable lyrics including the famous ‘the mess that we’re in and the city sun sets over me’.



My own reaction was somewhat different and needs to be narrated.



At the time of this catastrophe, I was Executive Director of the World Bank, at Washington DC. In the aftermath of the tragedy, it became fashionable for every think-tank to discuss two questions: ‘What went wrong?’ and ‘Why people hate us (Americans)?’ I happened to attend one such meeting during September itself. The gathering was impressive, I was seated almost opposite the Chairperson. The guest speaker had concluded on the somber note of the need for building a coalition of nations against terrorism. He also spoke of the radicalization of Islam, values of religious pluralism, and the need for tolerance. The presentation over, the Chairperson asked for comments and looked at me. She said that India may have the answer in view of its heritage of pluralism and originality of mind, and gave me the floor. I was not prepared. I recall having said then that ‘while India may have the answer, I do not’ and went on to narrate my experiences in handling terrorism in India. I was aware of the inadequacy of my response. For the real question was : What could we do to achieve harmony in a world so globalized, yet with nations so unequal, living in mutual distrust, fear and worse terror?



Since then I have been contemplating this theme with a view to exploring an enduring framework for a global public policy – a policy for harmony among different people and societies in the post 9/11 world as seen through the lens of the Indian experience.



The Bahudhā Approach



I would like to call the approach I am suggesting Bahudhā . This comes from my personal attachment to an attitude that has greatly contributed to the enrichment of harmonious life in India: ‘respect for another person’s view of truth with hope and belief that he or she may be right’. This is best expressed in the Rigvedic hymn that enjoins:



Ekam Sad Vipra Bahudhā Vadanti


The Real is one, the learned speak of it variously


Etymologically speaking, the word Bahudhā is derived from the word bahu, and dha is suffixed to it to make it an adverb. So, what does Bahudhā mean? ‘Bahu’ denotes many ways or parts or forms or directions. It is used to express manifoldness, much, and repeatedly. When the word is used with the root kri, it means to make manifold or multiply. Bahudhā is also used as an expression of intermittent continuity in various time frames. It is used to express frequency, as in ‘time and again’. Bahudhā suggests an eternal reality or continuum, a dialogue of harmony, and peaceful living in society.



Pluralism could be the closest equivalent to Bahudhā in the English language. Pluralism has been described in various ways in history, sociology, and politics – cultural pluralism, political pluralism, and pluralistic societies. Pluralism has also been seen in the context of the co-existence of nation-state and ethnicity, equality and identity issues.



The Bahudhā approach recognizes that there is a distinction between plural societies and pluralism. Pluralism is an inevitable ingredient of democratic societies. The role of religion, language, and ethnicity is very significant in plural societies. Pluralism in this context is an imperative for both developed and developing societies.



Pluralist societies are necessarily multi-ethnic, multi-religious, and multilingual societies. In such societies, there are various boundaries: racial, linguistic, religious, and at times even ideological. The Bahudhā approach does not believe in annexation or transgression of boundaries or assimilation of identities and propagation of a simplistic world view. It merely facilitates dialogue and thereby promotes understanding of the collective good. The realization of one’s own identity may sustain boundaries and yet, at the same time, understanding of other identities may help formulate a public policy of harmony. The Bahudhā approach is conscious of the fact that societies without boundaries are not possible.



The culture of Bahudhā is deeply rooted in the inculcation of a special attitude from an early age. Dialogue requires a state of mind where one can strongly believe in one’s own way of looking at issues while simultaneously accommodating another’s point of view. It is this mental discipline that makes one willing to consider the validity of other person’s view point.



In short, the Bahudhā approach is both a celebration of diversity and an attitude of mind that respects another person’s point of view. Democracy and dialogue are central to this approach.



Diversity celebrates different religions, gods and goddesses and belief systems. It also promotes a feeling that the world would be a dull and over-uniform place if there was only one religion, one god, one language, one folklore and one folktale. The human species cannot be all of one belief or faith or system – humanity is diversity – something we too often forget.



The inculcation of attitude of mind inspired by the Bahudhā approach would mean that one hears others in a manner that is akin to our behavior with family members or with our neighbours. This could help us appreciate and even adopt good practices and value systems of others without diminishing our own.



How is Bahudhā relevant in terms of formulation of public policy of harmony in our modern world?



III



The World We Live in



It is imperative to realize that global politics is rapidly changing both in its character and content. People as well as nation-states are increasingly getting conscious of their identities and their place in the world.



At the risk of over-simplification, the vital question in this changed world is ‘How should we live?’



In this broad context, the relevance of Bahudhā approach in the contemporary world could be viewed in the context of a series of interrelated happenings such as globalization and its discontents; the yearning for freedom and hope for a decent livelihood among youth; the increasing importance of religion in human affairs; and the rise of terrorism caused by and/or accompanied with a sense of fear, revenge and humiliation.



Globalization and its Discontents



Globalization, the new international system, has integrated markets, nation-states and technologies to a degree never before witnessed. This new process is enabling individuals, corporations and countries to reach around the world further, faster, deeper and cheaper. It is true that globalization has, in many ways, strengthened the hold of the United States of America- the sole super power after 1991- over the rest of the world. The recent rise of Asia, particularly of India and China, as economic powers, however, is gradually challenging the Western pre-dominance in the world.



In a globalized world the poor are no longer ignorant of the world of the rich. The rich can no longer ignore the tragedies of people of Asia, Africa and Latin America for this could adversely affect them.



The Arab Spring



Today, there is lot of hope in the Arab world. The changes that began in the first year of the second decade of the twenty-first century in the Arab World constituted a titanic movement in history. It reminded one of the nature of changes that were set into motion in the last decade of the twentieth century that commenced with the fall of Berlin Wall, dissolution of the Soviet Empire and democratic freedom for the east European countries.



The ‘Jasmine Revolution’ of January, 2011 in Tunisia – so named in view of the pride of place that jasmine occupies in Tunisian society was filled with talk of democracy and freedom. It was facilitated by use of the mobile phone, the Internet, Facebook and Twitter- the new instruments placed in the hands of youth by Information and Communication Technology (ICT) revolution. Egypt and several other Arab countries including Yemen, Syria and Libya followed suit. The massive and spontaneous nature of street-protests posed decisive challenge to the rule of autocrats and dictators. It was a huge reaction against rulers who were stealing wealth of the community and depriving people of their freedom.



In future, it may well be that the Arab World would be ruled by democratically elected leaders. The Arabs will exercise their rights to regime change as in European countries, the US and India. It will, however, take time for democratic institutions like the legislature, the judiciary, the media and the election commission to acquire firm roots and autonomous and independent character.



In a globalized world, the youth are nurturing hope based on doing better in this world here and now. They are no longer believers in fate nor do they entertain the belief in some future better world, either on earth or in heaven.



Religious Revival



The world is also witnessing a revival of religions as never before in recent times. There is a revivalist movement among believers in Islam, Christianity, Buddhism, Hinduism, Shinto, and Judaism. There are signs that many Chinese and Russians are returning to religion. Fundamentalist Islam is asserting itself even among the westernized middles classes of Turkey and Egypt.



Religious resurgence is primarily a reaction to the loss of personal identity and group stability produced by the process of social, economic, and cultural modernization that swept across the world in the second half of the twentieth century. In the second half of the twentieth century economic and social modernization became global in scope. With the rapid decline in traditional systems of authority, some people get separated from their roots in a bewildering maze of new rules and expectations. Such people need new sources of identity, new forms of stable community, and new sets of moral precepts to provide them with a sense of meaning and purpose. Organized religious groups, both mainstream and radical, are growing today precisely to meet these needs. It has pervaded ‘every continent, every civilization, and virtually every country’.



Privatization of Violence and Terrorism



Terrorism, including human bombs, is the latest instrument in violent conflicts that are being sanctioned in the name of redressal of religious and ethnic grievances. The story of the Al-Qaeda as a terrorist organization is ‘the story of eccentric and violent ideas sprouting in the fertile ground of political and social turmoil’. Islamists believe that ‘war on terror’ is just a western euphemism for ‘war on Islam’. The concerned citizens in different continents are asking: How to stop this cycle of violence that is leading to more violence and suffering?



Today, the spectre of a nuclear holocaust can no longer be dismissed as wild imagination. There is no road map with the United Nations for achieving nuclear disarmament in a time-bound universal, non-discriminatory, phased and verifiable manner. On the other hand, the fact that some ‘rogue’ nations are already in possession of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), only fuels this growing sense of insecurity. In a way, globalization has aided the expansion of a global terror network. There is now constant sharing of intelligence and technology between different terror outfits around the world. The porous borders, meant to allow free trade, are being exploited by terrorists to carry out subversive activities.



The privatization of violence through terrorism poses a major challenge. Invisible nature of the terrorist threat is a factor that is contributing a sense of insecurity and fear particularly among the rich and the middle class.



Humiliation and Hope



The world is also being guided by a sense of Humiliation and by a sense of Hope. Humiliation is the injured confidence of people and the nation-states when they come to believe that for no fault of theirs they were/are badly treated and that their physical and human resources were/are exploited by a few powerful countries and companies.



On the other side of spectrum, there are several countries where people and particularly the boys and girls are hopeful for their future. They are confident that the future belongs to them and that they will be able to realize their potential in their life-time and leave a better future for their children and grand-children.



The free flow of goods, ideas and technology is being accompanied by rapid rise of a sense of humiliation and other identity related issues. People are increasingly viewing their identity not only in terms of nation-states to which they belong, but also as members of their religious, racial, and ethnic groups. Such consciousness of one’s heritage and a sense of pride in it gives them satisfaction. Yet, concurrently, a lack of understanding of and with other members of society about economic opportunities, political rights, and religious sensibilities provides grounds for discord and often degenerates into violence.



Intolerance is on the rise. In spite of the fact that we live in an information age, we do not understand the aspirations and beliefs of other people adequately. Instead, we insist upon images and data that obscure rather than illuminate our vision. On the other hand, the world is growing more complex and individuals, nations and cultures are showing increasing concerns about their identities. All these impact on international politics.



There is something coarse, and at times extremely cruel, in our behavior towards each other. Social and religious resentment accompanied by economic inequality and the exploitation of deprived individuals and backward nations has the propensity to create lasting disturbances in the world. Above all, the problem of terrorism and the ecology crisis call for augmentation of our dialogue processes and enhancement of cooperation skills. It is very evident that the direction of world affairs, unless significantly changed, will bring disaster and tragedy of untold perceptions.



Need for Change and Bahudhā Approach



So we need a new kind of world to be constructed by people, states, and religious communities. Perhaps, the major world religions could seize the opportunities provided by globalization to transform their messages and reach out to a new global audience. Faith informs the daily struggles of millions in confronting larger political conflicts regarding democracy, human rights, and economic development.



In the circumstances, our perception as well as our approach needs to change radically to avoid collapse of the existing international order. This is both for self-preservation and collective survival. The emotional frontier is becoming as important as our geographical frontiers. A tolerant world calls for appreciation of differences and similarities of others with one’s values and belief systems. The Bahudhā approach is needed both for understanding of other societies and peoples and for living in harmony. How do we secure these?



IV



How to Secure Bahudhā



The Bahudhā approach could be secured particularly through (i) religious harmony; (ii) educational programming; (iii) strengthening of international political architecture: the United Nations; and (iv) the use of military power in terms of the UN Charter.



Relevance of Religion



Towards the end of the nineteenth century, the famous German thinker Friedrich Neitzsche (1844-1900) made an astounding statement declaring the ‘death of God’. Advances in science and technology gave human beings new powers of control over the forces of nature and that, in turn, led several writers and thinkers to declare their independence from God. The Age of Reason had dawned and started asserting itself.



By the end of the twentieth century, however, religion began to re-assert itself and began to influence world events. Politicians, journalists, and scholars started realizing and often exploiting the extremely powerful value of the religious motives of citizens and the need to use their beliefs in the promotion of development, peace and happiness in society.



Culture, theology and territory are linking global and local religious identities as globalization is changing the very nature of religion and its role in international affairs.



In coming decades religion is likely to make increasing impact upon and even alter relations of the nation-states in several parts of the world. At a basic level, religion will be an important factor in understanding the general foreign policy orientations of many countries.



Religion is a potent force. As an agent for the generation of peace and happiness, it facilitates goodwill among people, and helps them to lead a life of spirituality and fulfillment. In recent years, people like Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King have used it for achieving justice and freedom. Swami Vivekananda and Mother Teresa were inspired by their religious faiths to serve the poor, the derelict, and the discarded.



The re-assertion of religion in public affairs has also revived the traditional belief that ‘my religion is the best’. Identifying religion with dogmas and beliefs had led to several wars in the past and inflicted sufferings on fellow citizens has begun receding in human consciousness. Several questions are being asked: what is the political role of religion? How does it affect state policy? What is our religious experience?



The well-known Sufi poet Maulana Jalaluddin Rumi beautifully enunciates the Islamic faith when he writes, “The lamps are different but the light is the same: it comes from beyond” . There are similar expressions in other religions as well. Such ideas strengthen the logic that there can be salvation outside the church or the synagogue, outside the temple or the sangh, and outside the mosque or the gurudwara. Even under the guidance of the same scripture, different communities have developed different ways of worship and communion with the creator. This, in turn, has created manifold forms of religious dialogues and forms of worship. What we need is a synthesis of these values-spiritual and moral as well as intellectual-with the aim of producing a fully integrated human being. Such an individual would be both inward looking as well as outward looking, who searches his own mind in order that his nobler self may prevail at all times, and at the same time recognize his obligations to his fellow men and the world around him.



Education



Education has a central role to play in building a harmonious society. Education must begin at home as it is here that intolerance towards other faiths has its origins. We know that it is not only love and compassion but also hatred and intolerance that are widespread. Just as people can be taught to hate, they can also learn to treat others with love, dignity and respect. In fact, the issue of public policy of harmony is critically linked with education.



There is an urgent need to focus on the educational curriculum in order to purge it of content that spreads hatred and/or distorts history. Effective education also demands the development of a creative mind and scientific temper.



Utilizing education as an instrument of harmony is not an easy task. The educational curriculum, in particular, has become in several countries an ideological battleground. The interpretation of historical events often excites religious and ethnic groups who start taking positions that are not always rational. Yet, education is the most dependable resource for preparing the youth for initiating dialogue.



We have to look beyond the events that have characterized the global scene since 9/11. Two aspects of education would, however, remain paramount. First, education must strive to create in young minds a willingness to tolerate differences of opinion and the desire to understand different points of view. Second, the massive progress in science and technology has tended to stress the intellectual rather than moral and spiritual values.



Societies marked by a continuing intolerant ethos, in which religious or ethnic groups blindly espouse their narrowest possible perceptions, education can play a role. Patience and time are needed for education to play its expected meaningful role in bringing peace and harmony in the world. The biggest positive factor is that despite all odds youth in many parts of the world are full of hope.



The International Political Architecture: The United Nations



Resolving conflict, however, goes much beyond education. Towards this end, the UN has to be strengthened in terms of its Charter so that it becomes an effective conflict resolution organization. The global political order must reflect the best interests, rules, and practices that states hold in common.



As we look towards the future, it appears that the prevailing nation-state system would continue to be a primary structure. An international order based on the rule of law and consent of nation-states can alone be an effective conflict resolution mechanism.



The UN is the best forum for generation of understanding among nation-states in the realm of politics and economy. It can also be a forum where dialogue among nations can be initiated and sustained. Such dialogues can support efforts towards peace and attempts to resolve conflicts between groups and nations.



The UN needs to be re-organized in several ways: by expanding the Security Council to reflect present day political and economic realities and by funding a permanent peacekeeping force.



Conflict also arises from the growing economic inequality in the world. It is true that the economic progress the world has accomplished during the last fifty years is higher than any in previous periods in history. We are living in a world where the global economy generates over $60 trillion a year. And yet, nearly one billion people in developing countries live on less than one dollar a day. In this inequitable world, less than twenty percent of the people control eighty percent of the income and resources of the globe. This inequality is likely to increase in view of demographic expansion. Five hundred years ago, the population of the world was about 500 million. The demographic scene has undergone dramatic transformation since then. On 31st October, 2011, we celebrated the arrival of seven billionth baby in India and in other parts of the world. By 2050, the world’s population will increase to 9.1 billion people, and virtually all the population growth will be in the developing world, especially in the fifty poorest countries.



An empowered Economic and Social Security Council would also enable the UN to play a more effective role in reforming the global economic and financial system, represented by the IMF, the World Bank and the WTO. This could enable all nations including the advanced industrial countries a co-operative role in the implementation of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).



Use of Force



A question is often posed about the role and relevance of the military in the construction of an environment for creative dialogue among civilizations. In the post 9/11 world, it is quite obvious that the ugly face of terrorism has given full justification for a strong military posture by Governments. In fact, the rise of terrorist activities in different parts of the world demands it. It, however, does not mean that military intervention can be taken in an arbitrary fashion.



In this context, the theory of preventive war enunciated by the United States in its National Security Document of September 2002 explicitly defining its unilateralist approach to terrorism needs to be examined. The UN Charter calls upon member states to attempt to settle disputes peacefully - failing that, to make reference to the Security Council for appropriate action including use of military force in terms of Article 51. The categorical position emerging out of Article 51 is that states refrain from the use of military till an armed attack takes place. This has been repeatedly violated but it needs to be respected for building a harmonious world.



Fortunately, the National Security Strategy announced by the White House in May 2010 does not talk about unilateralism in international affairs in the manner President Bush had prescribed in 2002. This is a significant and welcome departure – a step forward towards rule of law in international relations.



It is obvious but needs to be stated that in the task of updating the current architecture of international institutions, which are so out of alignment with the modern world, no state is in such an advantageous position to promote institutional shifts as the United States.



Re-building a New Global Order



There are two other significant aspects of re-building a new global order.



First , the tragedy of 9/11, followed by terrorist attacks on the Indian Parliament and in Madrid, London, Chechnya, Jammu and Kashmir, Bali and Mumbai has erected new walls. The walls built are not physical structures but a reflection of mind-walls. It is imperative to pull down these mind-walls in order to build a harmonious world.



Second , in re-building international institutions we need to be guided by an Idealism that accords each nation-state a place under the new sun commensurate with its political and economic strength. This is best expressed by Nagarjuna, the Hindi poet, when he sings:







( The sun that is shinning on the new sky,
The earth that has acquired the fresh glow,
contains my light as well, )



V



The Path Ahead



Although civilizations, like other human creations, are mortal, they also evolve, survive and adapt through re-shaping their enduring ideas and values. The four prominent civilizations which embrace an overwhelmingly large segment of the global population are: Indian or Indic, Chinese, Islamic, and Western. The Bahudhā approach of ‘one truth, many interpretations’ has been an important feature of the higher forms every civilization.



Human nature will continue to be a balance of opposites: love and hatred, peace and violence, truth and falsehood, unselfishness and self-centredness, saintliness and sinfulness, and the spiritual and the physical. In fact, these opposite traits are closely connected to one another. The greatness of the human mind lies in building a system that is inclusive and judicious and one that ensures dialogue among persons, groups and nations. Towards this end, religion and spirituality, education and culture, and global political and economic institutions have major roles to play.



In a world of different civilizations each will have to learn to co-exist with the others. What ultimately counts for many people is not political ideology or economic interest. Faith and family, blood and belief, are what people identify with and what they will fight and die for. The question is : Should we allow the clash of civilizations to replace the Cold War as the central phenomenon of global politics?



While fundamentalist religious forces are likely to continue to dominate political discourse for some time to come, it is not likely to be a permanent feature of the world social and political order. Fundamentalism cannot satisfy growing human aspirations or meet the challenges of modernization. Thus, the present hold of extremist organizations over its followers in the Islamic world and elsewhere should gradually loosen and eventually recede.



My sense of optimism and confidence that nation-states would cooperate in elimination of terrorist violence make me believe that the menace of terrorism in its present form would become a thing of the past in the coming decades. But this is not inevitable. The state-system, civil society organizations and concerned citizens have to take stronger action against terrorism. As I look into the future, other challenge - of removal of poverty, disease, illiteracy and inequality - will, however, persist in the 21st century.



The movements towards democracy, religious harmony, and good education need not be viewed as separate ideals or goals; these are interrelated. Creative minds, civil society institutions, and the global political architecture need to have a unity of purpose. The future of harmonious living demands sharing of a perspective that accommodates different points of view and respect for the ideals of Bahudhā .



Simultaneously, we have to discard the ideas like ‘my god is superior to yours’, ‘teaching hatred can secure national integrity’, ‘using terrorist groups in pursuit of national goals’ and dismantle infrastructure that ‘breeds hatred and imparts training for terrorist acts’.



Amidst all this, our task is to move collectively as human beings towards peaceful and harmonious living that demands both rationality and love. On our generation rests the responsibility to provide these elements.



There are enormous challenges in removing poverty and building an equitable social order. Fear of violence, terrorism, and the revival of the balance of power philosophy that caused conflicts and wars in the past, persist. I believe that civilizations do not clash, savagery does. Viciousness, duplicity and lack of trust can only be addressed through a dialogic approach and by cultivating an attitude of mind that embraces both listening and recognition of truths other than one’s own.



In our current global society, it is no longer possible to lead an isolated life. People of different faiths and belief live together. It is, therefore, necessary to understand each other’s needs, aspirations, faiths, and belief practices. We have to learn to live together in concord in spite of traditional differences of religion, civilization, nationality, class, and race. To accomplish this, we have to know each other, which include knowing each other’s past. We must learn to recognize and, as far as possible, understand the different cultural configurations in which human nature has expressed itself through indifferent religions, civilizations and nationalities.



Should we not make Bahudha a global creative venture - a cornerstone of liberal democracy and a plural world? Such questions need to be asked and answered. It is no surprise to me that I found the best answers in age-old knowledge systems, because people of goodwill have invested intellectual and spiritual energies in constructing them throughout history, both in India but in other parts of the world as well.



At the End



The study of society and the behaviour of people has always fascinated me. I am aware that both peace and conflict characterize humanity and also the fact that ideas do influence the course of history. My approach to history and politics is based on my deep optimism that the world must and could be improved.



The commitment of people to the idea of peace and the concept of concord is the pre-requisite for achieving harmonious society. The renowned German philosopher Immanuel Kant ( 1724-1804) wrote in 1795 essay Perpetual Peace that we have to work for avoiding ‘a war of extermination’ and for establishment of ‘ a state of peace’. He opined that social harmony would emerge either by human insight or by conflict of a catastrophe of magnitude that would give humanity no other choice. In other words, at this time in our history we have to choose between ‘clash of civilizations’ and ‘Bahudhā’ . The choice is ours.

Friday, 20 January 2012

China's White Papers on Space: An Analysis

by Ajey Lele and Gunjan Singh
IDSA

January 20, 2012
The three White Papers provide overall, basic information about the Chinese Space agenda. They highlight the fact that China has achieved important breakthroughs in a relatively short time and can be viewed as a rapidly rising Space power. The emphasis in the White Papers is on the civilian aspects of the Chinese Space programme. This could, in a sense, be regarded as the tip of the iceberg, focusing on the civilian aspects of the Space agenda while hiding deeper strategic intentions. China's international alignments and cooperation in the Space arena indicates that it views Space technology as an instrument to boost its soft power status.

It is important not to view the Chinese Space programme in a limited sense as an attempt to demonstrate technological or military superiority. It is as much about showing visionary leadership as an attempt to achieve great power status by putting a Chinese on the Moon, the first country envisaged to do so in the 21st century.
China rail: RS panel raises concern

Pioneer News Service

A Rajya Sabha panel has expressed concern over China bringing railway line to almost Indian borders and has suggested the Defence Ministry to immediately bring to the notice of the Prime Minister the urgency to build a corpus for laying railway network in bordering areas.

It also urged upon the Government to draw up a time-bound plan to execute and implement the strategically important projects in coordination with stakeholders in a “time-bound manner”.

The panel headed by former Uttarakhand Chief Minister Bhagat Singh Koshiyari felt India had to cut a sorry figure in the 1962 war with China for want of adequate infrastructure in border areas.

China has completed its 3,900 km Beijing Lhasa rail link and is pushing ahead with several other rail road projects adjoining the Indian border. China proposes to build 5,000 km of rail link with emphasis on establishing connectivity to Tibetan Autonomous Region.

China is also considering an extension of the Golmu-Lhasa line up to Xigaze, south of Lhasa and from there to Yatung, a trading centre barely a few kilometres from Nathula, a mountain pass that connects Tibet with Sikkim.

Also there is a proposal to extend the line to Nyingchi, an important trading town north of Arunachal Pradesh at the trijunction with Myanmar. These rail lines will bring Chinese trains up to Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh — two Indian States that figure prominently on the radar of Sino-Indian dispute. It has also proposed to build rail network in Nepal.

“It is a matter of great concern that China has almost encircled Indian border areas through railway and road network. The issues is of great significance in view of the fact that China has grown exponentially in both the economic and the defence areas and (Indian) Government needs to be extremely cautious on both these counts,” a report by the panel has said.

India’s rail network is World’s most extensive but it does not penetrate the border states of J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh.

In their petition to the committee in 2010, two MPs and five MLAs from Uttarakhand said, “The British left behind a track lane of 55,596 km, in 62 years since Independence the total railway track stands at 63,940 km. This work around addition of 130km in a year which is very pathetic. The situation in Himalayan States is even worse as not even a single kilometre has been added there since Independence.”

The Bhanupalli-Bilaspur-Beri; Ghanauli-Baddi; Nangal-Talwara and Bilaspur-Manali-Leh rail line in Himachal Pradesh, Rishikesh- Karnaprayag; Tanakpur-Ghat-Bageshwar; Dehradun-Kalsi; Ram Nagar-Chaukhutiya; Haridwar-Kotdwar-Ramnagar-Kathgodam; and Rishikesh-Dehradun in Uttarakhand, Hirumati-Itanagar; and Rupai-Parasuramkund in Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu-Rajauri-Poonch in J&K, Mirik-Gangtok and extension of Sevoke-Rangpu line up to Gangtok in Sikkim are in different phases. Paucity of fund, problem with land acquisition and bureaucratic hurdles have led to delays in their execution.

The Committee deliberated at length on the issue of funding by the State Government and the resultant cost escalation due to delays in allocation of resources by the State Government. The Committee felt that the only way out is to declare these projects as ‘National Projects’ or ‘strategically important projects’ with dedicated financial linkage.

The committee has also suggested the Government that instead of concentrating on all these railway lines, only those which are strategically important should be taken on priority basis.

It also suggested that problem of resource allocation could be addressed in the manner that instead of asking for one time allocation, if it was done in a phased manner then budgetary allocation could be done.
Meditation

is the process of developing a balanced connection between the physical, emotional, and mental elements of our being.

All of life's experiences - happiness, suffering, struggling - are created by the mind. How we experience a situation depends on how we view it, how we interpret what is happening and how we describe the situation to ourselves.

The five senses (eye, ear, nose, tongue, touch), receive and transfer information to the mind. The mind "perceives" and then interprets the information based on its' knowledge and feelings stored in the memory bank. When we identify ourselves with the mind we become sad or happy according to the mind's directing.

Tibetan Lama Geshe YongDong, will share his knowledge of a meditation technique called "Wangpo Gonga", which uses the five sense objects of sight, sound, smell, taste and feeling. The act of focused observation helps to minimize the constant wandering of our minds and thoughts.

Instruction will be on specific, simple techniques for each of the five senses. There will be guided practice and time for questions. This workshop is suitable for all levels of meditators, beginners or experienced.

Geshe YongDong is the founder and Spiritual Director of the Tibetan Bon Buddhist Centre in Courtenay. Born in Tibet, he became a monk at 13 and received the Geshe degree at age 24. Since 1999, Geshe YongDong has taught students in Germany, Holland, France, USA and Canada. For more information on Geshe YongDong or Sherab Chamma Ling, check website: www. sherabchammaling.com

Thursday, 19 January 2012

Welcoming the Dragon in India

by KAVITHA SRINIVASA
The Hindubusinessline
Elizabeth Chen , a Delhi-based Chinese professional, finds India rich in career opportunities.

Elizabeth Chen , a Delhi-based Chinese professional, finds India rich in career opportunities.








Elizabeth Chen is a Delhi-based Chinese professional, who first came to India to do a course in public relations. “My initial decision was to complete the course and pursue a career in public relations in Taiwan, China or Hong Kong. However, I decided to stay on as lucrative offers came my way. My career took off, and I have not looked back since then,” says Chen, who didn't want to join her family's restaurant business in Taiwan.

As GenNext Chinese move beyond family businesses and sift through global opportunities, and as the West grapples with economic crises, India increasingly appears to hold promise, with its IT prowess proving especially attractive. Over the last 15 years, there has been a significant increase in the number of Chinese expats working in India as chartered accounts, software professionals and entrepreneurs. According to data from the Chinese Embassy, 60,000 visas were issued to Chinese arriving in India between 2004 and 2010. The numbers increased nearly fourfold during this period.


“For many Chinese, India is traditional, yet the malls and restaurants come as a pleasant surprise, as they are indicators of a modern India with a global outlook,” says Ankit Shrivastava, Marketing Executive, India and International Relations, Dezan Shira and Associate, a foreign direct investment (FDI) specialist.

While GenNext Chinese are finding a footing across metros, an earlier generation of Chinese arriving in India traditionally made Kolkata their base. “Kolkata was home to India's largest Chinese population, whose livelihood depended on the leather business, beauty parlours and restaurants. The mindset changed as the younger generation explored newer avenues to improve their prospects,” says Dr Alka Acharya, Associate Professor in Chinese Studies, Centre for East Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. In an interesting twist of irony, Indian chefs steward Chinese restaurants and North-East personnel manage Chinese beauty parlours today.

Eric Yang, India Country Manager for Taiwanese company EDIMAX Technology, is an India-born Chinese (IBC) who grew up in Kolkata and later honed his IT skills in Taiwan. “As a third-generation IBC, I am grounded in Indian culture and thinking. Adaptation in a foreign land is not easy, especially given the language and cultural differences, but as an Indian it gives you an added edge due to our upbringing, and thus career options are broader,” says the Mumbai-based professional.

For some Chinese such as Luo Ping, Bollywood beckons. The talented artist won over fans with his soulful singing on the television show Super Idol 13.

Law and documentary films may appear completely divergent, but Yang Yen Thaw has struck a balance between the two. The founder-principal of YANG, a corporate and intellectual property law firm in Bangalore, Yang belongs to a family of shoemakers. A law professional with expertise in cross-border investments, the multilingual Yang in his spare time pursues diverse interests. The most recognised among these is his narration for the documentary film Legend of Fat Mama. Released worldwide in 2005, the film fetched Yang the Best Narration/ Voice Over at the 52nd National Film Awards. “The film is the journey of a Chinese who moved from Kolkata to Canada and, after spending a lifetime there, returns to Kolkata, to his memories. It dwells on the Chinese lifestyle in India, their pain, journeys and happenings,” explains Yang, adding, “It was weird sitting among film celebrities, and me, a lawyer from nowhere, claiming an award for their bread-and-butter! Nevertheless, it was a fantastic experience.”

With cultural exchanges between India and China dating back to ancient times, similarities abound. This, in turn, eases the process of assimilation. “Chinese expatriates fit into the Indian ethos because Indians could be global by way of working but they still believe in their culture and ethos, which is the case in China too,” says Shrivastava. Festivals are another meeting point, with many Chinese enthusiastically celebrating the wide variety found in India — be it Puja in Kolkata, Pongal in Tamil Nadu, Ganesh Chaturti in Mumbai, Lohri in Delhi or Ramzan and Holi. As Yang puts it, “How could we resist Diwali mithais, Christmas goodies, biryanis and other delectable fare that India has to offer?”

Indians, on their part, have developed a big love for Chinese cuisine, and even adapted it to create a distinct “Indian-Chinese” cuisine. From street hawkers to star hotels, Chinese food is a hot favourite everywhere. “We generated revenue 30 per cent above the normal daily sales during the 2011 Chinese New Year. We expect an increase of around 10-15 per cent in covers this year, as this has been the trend in our restaurant for the Chinese New Year dinner,” says Huang Zhiwen, Dimsum Chef, Zen, The Leela Palace Bangalore.

China on track to finish Lhasa-Shigatse railway line by 2015







(TibetanReview.net, Jan19, 2012)

The first extension of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, connecting Tibet’s capital Lhasa with Shigatse (Chinese: Xigatze) City in southern Tibet has been in full swing since Sep 2010 and will be completed as scheduled by 2015, reported China’s official Xinhua news agency Jan 17. Just three days earlier, the media in Nepal had cited visiting Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao as saying he would seriously consider his Nepalese counterpart’s request for this line to be extended to Kathmandu and then on to Lumbini near India’s border.

The report cited the development and reform commission of Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) as saying in a statement that workers had finished laying 14.08 million cubic metres of roadbed – about 77 percent of the total – and built 40 percent of the tunnels along the road.

The report said the 253-km extension line will pass through five counties and the 90-km-long Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon.

Of its budget of 13.3 billion yuan (US $2.1 billion), 3.4 billion yuan had been spent by the end of 2011.

The report cited Jin Shixun, chief of the commission, as saying the new railway line was designed to have a transport capacity of 8.3 million tonnes of freight annually and will allow trains to travel at a minimum speed of 120 km per hour.

Shigatse City is the administrative centre of the prefecture of the same name. The report noted that the prefecture, with an area of 182,000 sq km, shared borders with India, Nepal and Bhutan and included Mt Qomolangma (Tibetan: Jomolangma, Mt Everest).

Once the Shigatse line opens, China will start building another extension of the plateau railway, from Lhasa to Nyingchi, in the next five years, the report said, citing the TAR's plan for economic and social development in the 2011-2015 period.

Earlier (TibetanReview.net, Feb15, 2011)said:

Chinese trains to chug near Sikkim border by 2017
(TibetanReview.net, Feb15, 2011) Come the year 2017 and China will have not only completed the Lhasa-Shigatse railway line but will also have extended its rail network all the way to Dram (Chinese: Zhangmu) near Nepal’s border and also to Yadong (or Yatung, also called Dromo) in the strategically important Chumbi valley, near India’s border state of Sikkim. The Indian Express newspaper Feb 14 reported that this was confirmed by a Chinese Railways Ministry map, put out in Jan’11, showing China’s “long term railway network plan”.

The report said the map shows the railway line extending from Lhasa to Zhangmu, with possible eventual extension into Nepal and even Kathmandu. It added that under the plan, another line will branch out from Shigatse to move east, going right up to Yadong, on the mouth of the Chumbi Valley. This town is connected to Sikkim through the Nathu La pass and is strategically located on the tri-junction of India, China and Bhutan, the report noted.

The report noted that areas near Yadong are still being disputed between Bhutan and China and that the area had witnessed military conflict in 1962 as part of Indian effort to defend Nathu La.

China had spoken about these and other major railway plans in or into Tibet, but had not yet put them on paper.

Again in (TibetanReview.net, Oct09, 2010)serious issues on Lhasa-Shigatse railway was reported:

(TibetanReview.net, Oct09, 2010) Touted as a project to further develop Tibet, the Lhasa-Shigatse extension of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, for which China began the actual building work on Sep 26, raises a host of technical, socio-economic, environmental, and geopolitical issues, according to The Economist Online (UK) Oct 7.


The report began by saying that in going ahead with the decision to build the railway line, the authorities appeared to have been undeterred by the problems that the railway had already brought to Lhasa where a tourism boom and a flood of immigrants from China’s interior contributed to an explosion of unrest among embittered Tibetans in Mar’08.


On the technical difficulties in building and maintaining the extension line, the report said that nearly half of it will go through tunnels or over bridges (96 of them). That it will cross areas prone to earthquakes, landslides and sand storms. And while the Golmud-Lhasa line had to traverse unstable permafrost, the Lhasa-Shigatse extension will be challenged by geothermal fields with hot springs. All this at an oxygen-starved altitude of 3,550-4,000 metres.


Even without the extension line and the upcoming airport, the opening of the Lhasa railway in 2006 led to the the number of tourists who visited the Tibetan side of Mt Everest, located in Shigatse, had almost doubled to 27,476 in 2007 from the preceding year. This has the environmentalists are worried.


The extension line is also a matter of concern to India, given the railway’s role in transporting troops and military equipment. It will also give China more leverage and influence over Nepal. China’s long-term plans to further extend the railway network to Nyalam on the border with Nepal and to Dromo near Bhutan and the Indian state of Sikkim and to Nyingtri, located close to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, claimed by China as southern Tibet, will only worsen the situation. Besides, Nepal has been repeatedly urging China to bring the railway right up to Kathmandu.


Shigatse itself is already a Chinese overwhelmed city. The report cited Tibet Business News, published from Lhasa, as saying that the majority of traders in Shigatse, Tibet’s second city, were already migrants from beyond Tibet. It was reported to cite a woman from neighbouring Sichuan Province as saying the railway would cut her costs of doing business in Shigatse by half. More Chinese like her will surely beeline for Shigatse and neighouring Tibetan towns as the Lhasa-Shigatse railway line progresses.

Again India's strategic concerns were raised on China's Tibet Railways and reported in TibetanReview.net, Jan 23, 2008 as under:


Thanks to the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, China can now move 10,000 troops to the Indian border near Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim in just about three weeks, down from 3-6 months a decade ago, reported the Indian Express newspaper Jan 6 in a front page article. Given this context, the Indian government’s high-profile China Study Group (CSG), which includes the Foreign Secretary, Defence Secretary and heads of intelligence agencies, has been asked to come up with recommendations for the Cabinet Committee on Security to counter the situation, the report said.


The report cited the Indian army’s fresh estimate that China can move up to two divisions (over 10,000 troops) in 20-25 days, the report said.


India had carried out a detailed exercise two decades ago on the Chinese threat and categorized threat levels into low, medium and high, depending on the number of troops Beijing could move, given the difficult terrain, the report noted. This has been revised periodically, with the most recent assessment being reported to be as follows:


“• Low-Level threat: This is an offensive with about two battalions. India’s earlier estimate was that it would take China 15 days to plan such a strike. This is now down to 7 days.


“• Medium-Level threat: This is an offensive with about two brigades. Earlier estimate was that this would take about 30 days for China. This is now down to 15 days.


“• High-level threat: This is what has got the government most concerned. This involves moving troops from hinterland China and about two divisions in total, which could take even up to two seasons (three to six months) depending on weather. This is now down to 20-25 days.”


This takes into account the improved road and rail infrastructure in Tibet, connecting it to mainland China. An initial assessment was reported to show that India had to construct 72 roads urgently to come anywhere near addressing the Chinese challenge. A CSG recommendation is reportedly being awaited for this purpose. Besides, China’s building of new airfields in and around Tibet was reported to pose a challenge to India to undertake similar works, including looking at the possibility of reactivating airfields like Chushul in Ladakh currently used only for chopper operations.

Wednesday, 18 January 2012

Bangladesh on economic freedom index


According to the rating done by the premier Washington-based think tank Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal, Bangladesh has moved slightly upward on the score card by 0.2 point, though its ranking remained static compared to that of the last year.

So far as South Asian nations are concerned, Bangladesh with its score point at 53.2 is trailing behind Sri Lanka (58.3), Bhutan (56.6), Pakistan (54.7), and India (54.6).

The measurement of Economic Freedom Index is based on ten specific categories of freedom in the areas of labour, business, trade, fiscal policy, government spending, monetary policy, finance, investment, property rights and corruption. Obviously, Bangladesh could not perform equally well in all these categories of economic freedom.

The slightly better score relates to improvements in the areas of business and labour freedom. However, the rating in trade freedom has shown a downtrend compared to that in the last year.

Other positive trends include improvements in the regulatory efficiency demonstrated through a more simplified processing of business with attendant reduction in start-up time by about 19 days.

However, the full extent of the better functioning labour market remains largely underexploited, while the increased labour productivity is yet to be matched by a raise in wage structure. The government adopted some measures to contain higher inflationary pressure preventing it from impacting negatively on economic growth.

The report adds that administrative corruption and "inefficient judicial system" are still a barrier to better economic performance. The reform regime, too, has largely remained asymmetric and deficient. The governance is weak, while structural deficiencies continue to dog development efforts. The government's continued interference in the economy as well as the over-politicised regulatory regimes has rendered the foundation of economic freedom fragile.

Despite the drawbacks, the rating by the Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal still puts Bangladesh in a better light than generally perceived by experts at home. Moreover, given the economy's ever-expanding links to and increasing dependence on external factors like exports, foreign remittances as well as narrowing down of foreign aid inflow, it is no mean achievement.

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

Visit of Pakistan Army Chief to China

IDSA COMMENT
Visit of Pakistan Army Chief to China

by Mandip Singh

January 17, 2012
“Chin-Pak dosti zandabad!” – this closing remark by Liu Jian, in an article in the Pakistan daily `The Nation` on January 10, 2011, is a telling statement about China-Pakistan relations during the past year. That the new year began with the third visit of General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani to China on the invitation of the Chinese leadership from January 5-10, 2012 is in itself very significant. Coming as it did at a time when Pakistan is passing through a critical phase in its relations with the US over the war in Afghanistan and a troubled relationship with the political leadership back home, lends the visit great importance in Sino-Pak relations. A security official reportedly said that during this visit, `we want to take the relationship to the next level`, indicating that Sino-Pak relations were moving towards a new phase. During his visit, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff (COAS) met the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, the Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie, the PLA Chief of General Staff Gen. Chen Bingde, State Councillor and key diplomat Dai Bingguo, and Chen Qiufa, the Chief Administrator of State Administration for Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence (SASTIND).

While the official communiqué of the visit spoke of the usual strengthening of friendship and `all weather relationship` between the two nations, some issues are noteworthy. The Chinese leadership was careful about not going overboard with the visit, keeping in view its relationship with the civilian government in Pakistan. At a time when the internal situation in Pakistan itself is in turmoil, with the Army and Gilani at loggerheads, China was careful not to be seen taking sides.1 This was evident from the fact that Kayani did not meet the Chinese President during this visit. The Chinese Premier Wen said "China will consistently support Pakistan's efforts to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as back the country's economic growth and improvement of its people's livelihoods." He also added that “Pakistan Armed Forces have made an important contribution towards maintaining bilateral relations and boosting Pak-China strategic cooperation”, underlining the fact that China feels comfortable dealing with the Pakistan military and recognises the latter’s relevance in Sino-Pak relations.

During a media briefing after Kayani’s visit, Hong Lei, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that both countries had reached agreements in defence security, military drills (read exercises), personnel training (read courses of instruction), college exchanges (read military exchanges programmes in academies/schools of instruction), equipment construction (possibly R&D) and non-traditional security.

The key issue of discussion on defence security is likely to have been Afghanistan post-US withdrawal in 2014, a fact mentioned by the Associated Press of Pakistan as `of core interest to Pakistan`. Kayani is reported to have said: “If Afghanistan is peaceful and stable; Pakistan will be the biggest beneficiary.” It may be recalled that Pakistan-US relations reached a nadir on November 26 after US gunships killed 24 Pakistani soldiers and injured several others in what is now called as the `Salala incident`. That resulted in the stoppage of US supplies through Pakistan to the ISAF, the US evacuation of Shamsi airbase and calls for a review of the rules of engagement (ROE) with the ISAF. On its part, the US has blocked the tranche of $800 million aid to Pakistan. The latest in the downslide has been the rejection by Pakistan of the US report (prepared by Brigadier General Stephen Clark) on the Salala incident stating it to be `short on facts`. Instead, Pakistan has demanded an apology from Obama.2

On the other hand, China has slowly increased its footprints in the region. With mining contracts for copper worth $3 billion, oil exploration in North Afghanistan of eight million barrels and at least 40 other contracts worth $500 million, China has acquired huge economic interests in Afghanistan. Naturally, China would be a major player in filling the void left by the US in the region. Even in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK), China has taken up major construction contracts to build dams, bridges and roads including the strategic Karakoram Highway. It would be reasonable to assume that Kayani is likely to have garnered adequate support and assistance for Pakistan from China in the event of the US closing the tap on aid and equipment including spares. Last year, Chinese military assistance to Pakistan was estimated at $84 million, which is likely to increase in the coming years. More importantly, India must be prepared to see a change in China’s stance on Jammu and Kashmir in the future - a fact that has already been demonstrated by China when it did a volte-face by terming it as ‘disputed’ from a hither-to-fore neutral stance.

The other issue of defence security is the Gwadar port and the Karakoram Highway (KKH). The KKH has been under repair jointly by Chinese and Pakistani military personnel since January 2010 after huge landslides wiped off 25-30 kilometres of the highway near Attabad. Further, the possibility of China setting up a military base in Pakistan has been covered in the Pakistan press quoting a report by Xinhua that: “China’s deepening strategic penetration of Pakistan and joint plans to set up oil pipelines/rail/roads and naval and military bases are a matter of concern.” The paper also acknowledged that: “China’s desire for a military presence in Pakistan has been discussed by the political and military leadership of that country in recent months.”3 China has actively aided Pakistan in developing the Karakoram corridor, a road network cum oil pipeline, which extends from the Gwadar port along the Indus- Karakoram highway to Xinjiang province. Besides, China has funded the construction of the Gwadar port. This provides China an alternative energy supply route and access to the Indian Ocean for trade. In this context, China may be seeking to set up a military presence in Pakistan to secure its assets and trade routes in that country.4

There has been a marked increase in officers and NCOs attending courses of instruction in China vis-à-vis those doing so in the US. Kayani’s visit would have only helped increase the utilisation of vacancies in PLA institutions by the Pakistan Army.5 However, of interest is the meeting of the Chief administrator of SASTIND with Kayani. SASTIND plays an important role in regulating Chinese exports of sensitive military items and has the responsibility for vetting China's conventional military exports, including missile-related exports. One of its primary responsibilities is to research future weapon systems, scientific development of dual-use systems, and managing the exports of developed weaponry.6 SASTIND works closely with both the Ministry of Commerce and the China Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA), SASTIND’s bureaucratic subordinate. It would be prudent to assume that General Kayani would have reviewed progress of ongoing military projects including sensitive missile projects during his meeting with the SASTIND team. Details of such projects are however, not known.

Insofar as non-traditional threats are concerned, in recent times, China has expressed concerns over growing Muslim separatism and training of Uighur fighters in Pakistan who routinely cross over into Xinjiang Autonomous Region. An official Xinhua commentary last September warned: ‘If violent forces in Xinjiang gain ground, China may be forced to directly intervene militarily in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but this is clearly not the situation China would like to see.’7 Last year, the DG ISI had to dash off to China to reassure the Chinese leadership that Pakistan would do everything possible to dismantle these camps and prevent the movement of Uighur separatists into XUAR. In November, Pakistan and China held a joint exercise at the Brigade level for the first time in counter terrorism, indicating China`s concern at the growing problem. The fact that the Pakistani Army Chief himself attended the exercise indicates its importance. Interestingly, the exercise practiced transportation of PLA Special Forces directly into a terrorist area from the mainland, a manoeuvre that highlights their capability of transportation and direct intervention in alien territory.

To conclude, the visit of General Kayani is likely to have established a larger role for China in the affairs of the Af-Pak region. The effect of Pakistan’s worsening relations with the US and the cut in aid is bound to drive Pakistan towards its `all weather friend` China. Besides, we should be witnessing a spike in military-to-military exchanges, more joint exercises, increased military aid in terms of equipment and material and more educational exchanges between the two militaries. India will need to factor the growing PLA presence in and around Pakistan and be prepared to engage an increasingly confident Pakistan propped by Chinese support and driven by Chinese interests in the region.

1. In fact, Gilani's much quoted interview to People's Daily Online run by the Communist Party of China was not seen online or in print media in China. It was possibly blacked out.
2. Al Jazeera News, December 23, 2011, available at http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2011/12/2011122345544826763.html.
3. News report in The International News, January 10, 2012 available at http://www.thenews.com.pk/TodaysPrintDetail.aspx?ID=11633&Cat=13.
4. See Saibal Dasgupta, `China mulls setting up military base in Pakistan`, TNN, January 28, 2010, available at http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-01-28/china/28120878_1_karokoram-highway-military-bases-north-west-frontier-province.
5. Jayadeva Ranade, `How Pakistan came to feel snug in a Chinese pocket`, DNA, January 10, 2012, available at http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column_how-pakistan-came-to-feel-snug-i... . He says: “At least 170 Pak Army officers have been trained (in China) and, in contrast, today there are only 116 officers who have been trained in the US.”
6. For details about SASTIND, see http://www.nti.org/facilities/781/.
7. Jayadeva Ranade, note 5.
IDSA COMMENT
China ups the ante in Arunachal Pradesh

by Namrata Goswami

January 17, 2012
China has upped the ante against India once again vis-à-vis its territorial claim on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. In early January, China denied visa to Group Captain Mohonto Panging, a senior Indian Air force officer hailing from Arunachal Pradesh, who was to be part of a 30 member Integrated Defence team travelling to China under a bilateral defence exchange programme. Ironically, the visit, starting January 10, was meant to be a Confidence Building Exercise and an offshoot of the Annual Defence Dialogue. India did not cancel the visit per se but instead sent a truncated 15 member military delegation that did not include Mohonto Panging.

It must be noted that this is not the first time that China has signalled its territorial claim on Arunachal Pradesh by denying visa to an Indian citizen from the state. In May 2007, China denied visa to Ganesh Koyu, an Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer from Arunachal Pradesh, who was to be a part of a 107 member IAS officer study visit to Beijing and Shanghai. China pointed out that Koyu is a Chinese citizen since he belongs to Arunachal Pradesh and hence could visit China without a visa! The same logic appears to have motivated the Chinese action this time around as well.

It is disturbing that China’s increasingly assertive posture on Arunachal Pradesh is being carried out against the backdrop of its increased militarization in Tibet. According to a 2010 US Department of Defense report, China has replaced its old liquid fuelled, nuclear capable CSS-3 intermediate range ballistic missile with “more advanced CSS-5 MRBMs” and has vastly improved its border roads in the eastern sector bordering India, which will considerably enhance PLA movement. Intercontinental missiles such as the DF-31 and DF-31A have also been deployed by China at Delingha, north of Tibet. On the border with India, China has deployed 13 Border Defence Regiments totalling around 300,000 troops. Airfields have also been established at Hoping, Pangta and Kong Ka, which are in addition to the existing six airfields in the Tibetan Autonomous Region, for supporting fighter aircraft and enhance the PLA’s airlift capability.

In response, India has upgraded its own military presence in the eastern sector by its decision to deploy the 290 km-range Brahmos supersonic cruise missile in order to strengthen its defence posture vis-à-vis China there. A five year expansion plan to induct 90,000 more troops and deploy four more divisions in the eastern sector is also underway. Already, there are 120,000 Indian troops stationed in the eastern sector, supported by two Sukhoi 30 MKI squadrons from Tezpur in Assam (See Figure I).

In an article in the PLA Daily last year, China had expressed concern about this Indian military upgrade in the eastern sector viewing it as directed at China. If that be indeed the case, refusing a visa to an Indian Air Force officer from Arunachal Pradesh, while aimed at scoring a political point with India, creates obstacles towards the very confidence-building that China hopes to see in the eastern sector.

It is to be noted that the India-China territorial dispute in the eastern sector had led to a border war in 1962 which resulted in India’s defeat by China. The memories of that defeat continue to linger in the psyche of the Indian military establishment. While both countries have avoided a conflict since then, the cause of that border war – a disputed 1,080km border and China’s territorial claim on Arunachal Pradesh – stands unresolved.

Figure I: India-China Military Position: Eastern Sector

Many strategic analysts argue that the Chinese claim on Arunachal Pradesh coupled with the unresolved eastern border could result in a future conflict between India and China. Such a scenario is, however, unlikely for three fundamental reasons. First, China and India are nuclear weapon states with 340 nuclear weapons between them (China with 240 and India with 100). Nuclear deterrence will play a critical role in averting all out war. Second, leaders of both countries would be cautious about any “war talk” due to the physical proximity between the two countries and realise that the consequences of any war would be tragic for both. Third, even conventional land warfare between India and China would be difficult due to the high mountainous landscape. The only caveat here is the possibility of aerial warfare, but nuclear weapons’ deterrence dynamics will play a role here as well.

To be sure, one of the main irritants in India-China relations, and closely tied to China’s territorial claim on Arunachal Pradesh, is the presence of the Dalai Lama and the “Tibetan government-in-exile” in India. The Tawang monastery in Arunachal Pradesh was the birthplace of the sixth Dalai Lama in the 17th century and is the second largest Tibetan monastery after the one in Lhasa. It could well be that the 14th Dalai Lama may choose his successor from the Tawang monastery. If this were to happen, the international questioning of China’s legitimacy over Tibet will continue. Consequently, China perhaps believes that its aggressive posture on Arunachal Pradesh will deter India from overplaying its Tibet card, which includes 120,000 Tibetan refugees living in India.

If the Dalai Lama factor is indeed propelling China’s recent posture on Arunachal Pradesh, it has all the makings of becoming a self fulfilling prophesy. It is well known that India provided asylum to the Dalai Lama in 1959 for purely moral reasons and has consistently expressed its recognition of Tibet as part of China. Yet, it appears that China suspects that there is some diabolical Indian plan to use the Dalai Lama to undermine China. As a result, it has turned aggressive on Arunachal Pradesh. This in turn has led some Indian strategic analysts to argue that India should develop the Dalai Lama card to counter China. Thus, the situation has the potential to come full circle.

It is however important for the peace and prosperity of both India and China that they do not descend into such a negative dynamic. It is in the interest of both countries that the 2005 India-China framework agreement is the most viable framework to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the territorial dispute.